RELEASE: CRI – Center for Economic Policy and Analysis
RE: Closing Delaware’s job gap
DATE: August 10, 2010
How long will it take Delaware to get back to the pre-recession peak level of employment? Assuming the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it will take over 33 months (nearly 2.8 years)(see the chart below). Alternatively, at the median monthly job creation rate over the past 20 years it will take 58 months (almost 5 years) to regain the peak and at the mean rate of monthly job creation this will stretch to over 83 months.
The good news is that based upon the best year in the 2000s, Delaware will close the gap much faster than will the nation. The bad news is that this estimate doesn’t include reabsorbing the 16,700 workers who have dropped out of Delaware’s labor force since the pre-recession peak (add another 2 years), nor the expected 1% annual growth in the state’s labor force that would require one-half the jobs created per month.
The state’s current unemployment rate is more than double the historic average. No matter how one slices the data, it is a long road back and will take patience and persistence.
Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director